## Price Overview
| Material | Current Price Range | WoW Change | Trend |
|———-|——————-|————|——-|
| PTFE Resin (suspension mid-grade) | 31,800-33,000 CNY/ton | -3.8%↔ | Stable/Weak |
| PEEK Resin (Victrex 450G) | 260-680 CNY/kg | Flat | Stable |
| Carbon Fiber T700 (12K) | 145 CNY/kg | -37% YoY | Declining |
| Carbon Fiber T300 (48K) | 72 CNY/kg | >37% YoY | Declining |
| PI Film (electronic grade / domestic) | 200-475 CNY/kg | Flat | Stable |
| PI Film (DuPont Kapton) | 1,000+ CNY/kg | Flat | Stable |
| Alumina (≥98.5%) | 2,715 CNY/ton | +2.2% | Slightly Up |
| Zirconium Oxychloride (≥36%) | 17,750 CNY/ton | +2.9% | Slightly Up |
## Key Movements
**Carbon Fiber: Most Significant Decline**
– T700 (12K) small-tow carbon fiber priced at approximately 145 CNY/kg, down ~37% from the beginning of the year; T300 (48K) large-tow at ~72 CNY/kg, with declines exceeding small-tow.
– Primary driver: Rapid domestic capacity expansion (Zhongfu Shenying capacity reached 28,500 tons/year, ranking top 3 globally), creating severe oversupply. Toray’s announcement to consider reducing general-grade carbon fiber equipment underscores pricing pressure.
– Demand side: Traditional demand growth from wind energy and PV thermal fields has slowed; digesting new capacity requires time.
**PTFE Resin: Narrow Range Oscillation**
– Domestic suspension mid-grade PTFE oscillating between 31,800-33,000 CNY/ton; June 16 quote at 33,000 CNY/ton.
– Fluorite (upstream feedstock) quoted at ~3,450 CNY/ton, providing moderate cost support, but downstream demand remains subdued.
**Specialty Ceramic Raw Materials: Modest Uptick**
– Alumina average price at 2,715 CNY/ton, up ~2% from prior period; zirconium oxychloride at 17,750 CNY/ton, up 500 CNY/ton WoW.
– Supply-side maintenance shutdowns and regional production cuts driving mild price increases.
**PEEK & PI Film: High-Level Stability**
– PEEK resin (Victrex 450G) at ~260 CNY/kg, specialty grade PEEK (HT-G22) at 650 CNY/kg, with no significant price movement. Domestic PEEK demand projected to exceed 16.7 billion CNY by 2027.
– PI film prices stable: domestic electronic grade at 200-475 CNY/kg, imported DuPont Kapton at 1,000+ CNY/kg. Flexible electronics and NEV applications driving steady demand growth.
## Impact Analysis
**Procurement Cost:**
– Continued decline in carbon fiber prices benefits composite material and wind blade manufacturers, with procurement costs significantly lower YoY.
– Mild increases in alumina and zirconium oxychloride create slight cost pressure for ceramic substrate and structural ceramic enterprises.
– PTFE prices stable; fluorchemical industry chain costs largely unchanged.
**Supply Chain:**
– Carbon fiber industry faces mounting inventory pressure; some SMEs confront cash flow challenges, accelerating industry consolidation.
– Toray’s plan to reduce general-grade capacity may shift supply-demand dynamics within 12-18 months; monitor closely.
## Macro Environment
– International crude oil (Brent) experienced significant volatility in June, dropping from ~94 USD/barrel at the start of the month to approximately 77 USD/barrel on June 18, a single-week decline exceeding 15%. The World Bank forecasts 2026 Brent average at ~94 USD/barrel, but the short-term correction creates cost expectation uncertainty for chemical products.
– China’s refined oil product price adjustment window on June 19 is expected to reduce prices by approximately 0.42 CNY/liter, lowering logistics costs.
## Action Recommendations
| Material | Strategy | Rationale |
|———-|———-|———–|
| Carbon Fiber T700/T300 | **Increase procurement moderately** | Prices at low range; further downside limited — lock in 3-month volume |
| PTFE Resin | **Wait and see** | Oscillating in 31,800-33,000 CNY/ton range; no directional breakout |
| PEEK Resin | **Purchase on demand** | Prices stable; no significant volatility expected short-term |
| PI Film (domestic) | **Lock in long-term contracts** | Demand growth明确的; domestic substitution accelerating; favorable pricing for cost locking |
| Alumina/Zirconium Oxychloride | **Replenish inventory soon** | Supply-side contraction expectations suggest further upside potential |
*Data sources: 100ppi.com, CBC Metal Network, ChemicalBook, 1688 public market quotes. For reference only.*
*Report Date: 2026-06-20 | Market Intelligence Officer*