标签：政策监控

[2026-05-05] New Materials Industry Policy Monitoring Daily Report

📅 Report Date: May 5, 2026

🏷️ Policy Areas: EU REACH · US TSCA · China GB Standards

⚠️ Overall Risk Level: Medium — Key regulatory transition window ahead

I. EU REACH — Significant Updates

1. REACH Annex XVII: New Restriction on 2,4-Dinitrotoluene

On April 20, 2026, the EU Official Journal published Regulation (EU) 2026/859, amending REACH by adding a new Entry 83 to Annex XVII, imposing restrictions on 2,4-dinitrotoluene (2,4-DNT):

Restriction: Products marketed for professional users or the public containing 2,4-DNT at concentrations ≥ 0.1% by weight are restricted
Effective date: 20 days after publication in the EU Official Journal
Affected products: Coatings, adhesives, inks, and dyes containing 2,4-DNT

2. SVHC Candidate List Updated to 253 Substances

The ECHA SVHC Candidate List has officially grown to 253 substances. Key additions include:

n-Hexane — Reproductive toxicity (Article 57c)
BPAF (4,4′-[2,2,2-trifluoro-1-(trifluoromethyl)ethylidene]diphenol) and its salts — Endocrine disrupting properties (Article 57f)

II. US EPA TSCA — Baseline Activity

EPA finalized the PFAS Reporting Rule under TSCA Section 8(a)(7) (40 CFR Part 705) on October 11, 2023. All persons who have manufactured (including imported) or imported articles containing PFAS at any time since January 1, 2011, are required to electronically report information on uses, production volumes, disposal, exposures, and hazards.

Additionally, EPA’s final rule on five PBT substances (DecaBDE, PIP(3:1), 2,4,6-TTBP, PCTP, and HCBD) has been progressively enforced since February 5, 2021.

III. China GB Standards — Key Reminders

【Effective June 1, 2026】Two Mandatory Coating Standards

GB 30981.1—2025 — Limits of Harmful Substances in Coatings, Part 1: Architectural Coatings
GB 30981.2—2025 — Limits of Harmful Substances in Coatings, Part 2: Industrial Coatings

【Effective August 15, 2026】Environmental Code of the People’s Republic of China

Enacted by the NPC Standing Committee on March 12, 2026, this is a comprehensive legal compilation covering hazardous chemical safety and pollutant discharge standards in China’s environmental sector.

IV. Recommended Actions

Priority	Action Item	Timeline
🔴 High	Screen products for n-Hexane, BPAF, and other SVHCs; verify concentration is below 0.1%	Immediately
🔴 High	Test coating products for 2,4-DNT content; prepare REACH Annex XVII compliance documentation	By end of May
🟡 Medium	Gap assessment against GB 30981.1/2—2025 for all coating products	By end of May
🟡 Medium	Build PFAS substance inventory; evaluate EPA TSCA Section 8(a)(7) reporting obligations	Ongoing
🟢 Low	Monitor Environmental Code implementation details and assess impact on chemical production	Before Aug 15

V. Baseline Reference

EU REACH SVHC Candidate List current total: 253 substances
REACH Annex XVII active restriction entries: 75 categories
US TSCA Chemical Substance Inventory: ~86,557 substances
EPA PFAS Reporting Rule: 40 CFR Part 705

📌 This report is compiled from publicly available regulatory information for compliance reference only. Specific compliance determinations should be made in consultation with qualified regulatory professionals based on actual product circumstances.

2026年5月6日

【2026年5月5日】新材料行业政策监控日报

📅 报告日期：2026年5月5日

🏷️ 政策领域：EU REACH · US TSCA · 中国GB标准

⚠️ 综合风险等级：中等（需关注近期标准更替窗口期）

一、EU REACH — 重大更新

1. REACH附录XVII新增2,4-二硝基甲苯限制条款

2026年4月20日，欧盟官方公报发布REACH法规修订条例 (EU) 2026/859，在REACH附录XVII中新增第83条，对 2,4-二硝基甲苯（2,4-DNT） 提出限制要求：

限制内容：市场上销售和使用的专业用户或公众产品中，2,4-DNT浓度 ≥ 0.1%（按重量计）
生效时间：官方公报发布后第20天生效
受影响产品：涂料、粘合剂、油墨、染料等含2,4-DNT的化工产品

2. SVHC候选清单更新至253项

根据最新公告，SVHC候选清单正式增至 253项，新增物质包括：

正己烷（n-Hexane） — 生殖毒性
BPAF（4,4′-[2,2,2-三氟-1-(三氟甲基)亚乙基]双酚）及其盐类 — 内分泌干扰特性

二、US EPA TSCA — 基线动态

EPA于2023年10月11日正式发布 PFAS报告规则（40 CFR Part 705），要求自2011年1月1日以来生产或进口PFAS的所有企业进行电子申报，内容涵盖用途、生产量、处置方式、暴露和危害信息。相关企业须按要求向EPA提交数据。

此外，EPA对五项PBT（持久性、生物累积性、有毒）物质（DecaBDE、PIP(3:1)、2,4,6-TTBP、PCTP、HCBD）的管控终规则于2021年2月5日生效并逐步实施中。

三、中国GB标准 — 重要窗口期提醒

【6月1日实施】两项强制性涂料标准

GB 30981.1—2025《涂料中有害物质限量第1部分：建筑涂料》
GB 30981.2—2025《涂料中有害物质限量第2部分：工业涂料》

【8月15日实施】《中华人民共和国生态环境法典》

2026年3月12日由全国人大常委会制定发布，是我国生态环境领域的基础性法律汇编，覆盖危险化学品安全、污染物排放等关键领域。

四、行动建议

优先级	行动项	时间节点
🔴 高	排查产品中是否含有正己烷、BPAF等SVHC物质，确认浓度是否超过0.1%	立即执行
🔴 高	核查涂料产品中2,4-DNT含量，准备REACH附录XVII合规文件	5月底前
🟡 中	对照GB 30981.1/2—2025新标准，评估涂料产品合规差距	5月底前
🟡 中	建立PFAS物质台账，评估是否适用EPA TSCA第8(a)(7)报告义务	持续推进
🟢 低	关注生态环境法典实施细节，评估对化工生产的影响	8月15日前

五、基线参考

EU REACH SVHC候选清单现行总量：253项
REACH附录XVII现行有效限制物质：75类
US TSCA化学品清单规模：约86,557种
EPA PFAS报告规则依据：40 CFR Part 705

📌 本报告内容基于公开政策信息整理，仅供合规参考。具体合规判断请结合实际产品情况或咨询专业机构。

2026年5月6日

Policy Compliance Daily Report: SVHC List Updated to 253 Substances | May 5, 2026

📅 Policy Compliance Daily Report | May 5, 2026

⚠️ Breaking: EU SVHC List Updated to 253 Substances

Release Date: February 4, 2026
Authority: European Chemicals Agency (ECHA)
Risk Level: 🔴 High

1. Key Updates

On February 4, 2026, ECHA officially released the 36th batch of SVHC candidate list, adding 2 new substances. The SVHC list has increased from 251 to 253 substances.

New Substances Added:

Substance Name	CAS No.	Reason for Inclusion	Main Applications
n-Hexane	110-54-3	Reproductive toxicity (Article 57c) Specific organ toxicity – nervous system ★ First SVHC substance listed for neurotoxicity	Solvents, oil extraction, adhesives, cleaning agents
4,4′-[2,2,2-Trifluoro-1-(trifluoromethyl)ethylidene]diphenol (BPAF) and its salts	1478-53-1	Reproductive toxicity (Article 57c) Specific organ toxicity	High-performance polymers, epoxy resins, coating materials

Withdrawn Substance:

❌ 4,4′-Isopropylidenediphenol (Bisphenol F, BPF) — Originally proposed, later withdrawn by ECHA

Pending Substance:

⏳ Resorcinol — Still awaiting final decision from the European Commission

2. Regulatory Trend Analysis

Neurotoxicity Now in SVHC Scope: n-Hexane becomes the first substance listed for neurotoxicity (rather than traditional CMR/PBT/vPvB categories), signaling ECHA’s expanded regulatory scope. More substances with neurological effects may be subject to future controls.
Continued Focus on Bisphenols: The inclusion of BPAF continues ECHA’s heightened scrutiny of endocrine-disrupting bisphenol compounds. Companies should monitor compliance risks for BPA, BPS, BPF, and related substances.
Widely-Used Solvent Now Controlled: As a common industrial solvent (oil extraction, adhesives, cleaning agents), n-Hexane affects multiple industries with broad supply chain implications.

3. Compliance Action Recommendations

Priority	Action Item	Timeline
🔴 Urgent	Immediately screen products for n-Hexane or BPAF content (including supply chain tracing)	Within 15 days
🟠 High	Assess whether SVHC content exceeds 0.1% threshold, prepare compliance declarations	Within 30 days
🟡 Medium	Update REACH compliance documentation, including Safety Data Sheets (SDS)	Within 60 days
🟢 Routine	Establish ongoing SVHC monitoring mechanism, subscribe to ECHA official updates	Ongoing

4. Supply Chain Communication Essentials

Communicate SVHC content information to downstream customers (mandatory if content >0.1%)
Confirm material compliance status with upstream suppliers
Prepare 45-day response mechanism for consumer inquiries
Evaluate feasibility and costs of substitute substances

5. Current SVHC List Status Summary

253 substances officially listed in SVHC candidate list
1 substance pending (Resorcinol)
254 substances total under regulatory scrutiny

📊 China GB Standards Update

Release Date: May 2026
Risk Level: 🟢 Low (No significant changes)

Monitoring Results

✅ Amendment No.1 to “Coking Benzene” (GB/T 2283) has been released
✅ “Methods of Sampling and Preparing Samples for Limestone for Chemical Industry” (GB/T 15057) remains current
✅ National Chemical Standardization Technical Committee – Chemical Catalyst Subcommittee (TC63/SC10) operating normally

Conclusion: No significant changes to China GB standards during this monitoring period. Companies may maintain current compliance status.

📋 Compliance Baseline Information

Regulatory Area	Current Status	Next Update Expected
EU REACH SVHC	253 substances officially listed	June 2026 (estimated)
EU REACH Authorization List	43 substances	Irregular updates
EU REACH Restriction List	81 substances/groups	Continuous expansion
China GB Standards (Chemical)	Normal updates	Scheduled release

📅 Report Date: May 5, 2026 | Category: Policy Compliance | Data Source: ECHA Official Website, National Standard Information Public Service Platform

2026年5月5日

政策监控日报：SVHC清单更新至253项 | 2026年5月5日

📅 政策监控日报 | 2026年5月5日

⚠️ 重磅：欧盟SVHC清单更新至253项

发布日期：2026年2月4日
发布机构：欧洲化学品管理局（ECHA）
风险等级：🔴 高

一、核心变动

2026年2月4日，ECHA正式发布第36批SVHC候选清单，新增2项物质，SVHC清单从251项增至253项。

新增物质详情：

物质名称	CAS号	列入理由	主要用途
正己烷 (n-Hexane)	110-54-3	生殖毒性(Article 57c) 特定器官毒性-神经系统 ★ 首个因神经毒性列入SVHC的物质	溶剂、油脂提取、粘合剂、清洁剂
4,4′-[2,2,2-三氟-1-(三氟甲基)乙叉]双酚 (BPAF)及其盐类	1478-53-1	生殖毒性(Article 57c) 特定器官毒性	高性能聚合物、环氧树脂、涂层材料

撤回物质：

❌ 4,4′-二羟基二苯甲烷（双酚F，BPF） — 原定列入，后被ECHA撤回评议

待决物质：

⏳ 间苯二酚（Resorcinol） — 仍在等待欧盟委员会最终决定

二、监管趋势解读

神经毒性纳入SVHC范畴：正己烷成为首个因神经毒性（而非传统CMR/PBT/vPvB类别）被列入SVHC的物质，标志着ECHA监管范围扩大，未来更多具有神经系统影响的物质可能被纳入管控。
双酚类物质持续受关注：BPAF的列入延续了ECHA对双酚类内分泌干扰物的高度关注，企业需关注双酚A、双酚S、双酚F等相关物质的合规风险。
广泛使用的溶剂首次被管控：正己烷作为工业常用溶剂（油脂提取、粘合剂、清洁剂等），涉及行业广泛，供应链影响面大。

三、企业合规行动建议

优先级	行动项	完成时限
🔴 紧急	立即排查产品中是否含有正己烷或BPAF（含供应链追溯）	15天内
🟠 高	评估SVHC物质含量是否超过0.1%阈值，准备合规声明	30天内
🟡 中	更新REACH合规文件，包括SDS安全数据表	60天内
🟢 常规	建立SVHC物质持续监控机制，订阅ECHA官方更新	持续

四、供应链沟通要点

向下游客户传递SVHC物质含量信息（如含量>0.1%需主动告知）
确认上游供应商的材料合规状态
准备消费者咨询的45天响应机制
评估替代物质的可行性与成本

五、当前SVHC清单状态汇总

253项 正式列入SVHC清单
1项待决物质（间苯二酚）
共254项 物质纳入监管视野

📊 中国GB标准动态

发布日期：2026年5月
风险等级：🟢 低（无重大变动）

本期监测结果

✅ 《焦化苯》第1号修改单（GB/T 2283）已发布
✅ 化工用石灰石采样与样品制备方法（GB/T 15057）现行有效
✅ 全国化学标准化技术委员会化工催化剂分技术委员会（TC63/SC10）正常运转

结论：本期监测周期内，中国GB标准无重大变动，企业可维持现有合规状态。

📋 合规基线信息

监管领域	当前状态	下次更新预期
EU REACH SVHC	253项正式物质	2026年6月（预计）
EU REACH 授权清单	43项物质	不定期更新
EU REACH 限制清单	81个物质/组	持续扩充中
中国GB标准（化工类）	正常更新	按计划发布

📅 报告日期：2026年5月5日 | 分类：Policy Compliance | 数据来源：ECHA官网、国家标准信息公共服务平台

2026年5月5日

Price Trend Daily Report — 2026-05-02

## Price Trend Daily Report — 2026-05-02

### Price Overview

| Material | Current Price Range | WoW | Trend |
|———-|——————-|—–|——-|
| PTFE Suspension Resin | 33,000-34,000 CNY/ton | -2.9% | ↓ Weakening |
| PEEK Resin | 980-1,500 CNY/kg | 0% | → Stable |
| Carbon Fiber T700 | 220-300 CNY/kg | +3.1% | ↑ Rising |
| PI Film (Imported) | 1,500-2,000 CNY/kg | 0% | → Stable |
| Silicon Carbide (SiC≥98%) | 5,900-6,300 CNY/ton | 0% | → Stable |
| Alumina | 2,680-2,820 CNY/ton | -1.5% | ↓ Declining |

### Key Changes

**PTFE Resin: ↓ Weakening**
Luxi Chemical cut quotes by 1,000 CNY/ton to 34,000 CNY/ton. Weak downstream demand and rising inventory pressure. Dispersion resin holds at 54,000 CNY/ton but trading is thin. Fluorite feedstock stable at 3,500-3,600 CNY/ton, providing limited cost support.

**Carbon Fiber: ↑ Rising**
Q1 2026 average price up 3.07% YoY. Jilin Chemical Fiber announced +5,000 CNY/ton across all grades in March. Acrylonitrile surge provides strong cost support. T800+ high-end grades remain in tight supply-demand balance, driven by growing demand from wind turbine blades, aerospace, and low-altitude economy sectors.

**Alumina: ↓ Declining**
March monthly average 2,714 CNY/ton (+3.12% MoM), but peaked and pulled back in April. Futures main contract at 2,854 CNY/ton end-April, down over 14% from March high of 3,136 CNY/ton. Guinea policy disruptions and new capacity coming online sustain the oversupply pattern.

### Impact Analysis

**Procurement Cost Impact:**
– Carbon fiber uptrend raises composite manufacturers’ costs by approximately 3-5% annualized
– PTFE decline benefits seal and pipe makers
– Alumina decline eases ceramic makers’ raw material costs

**Supply Chain Impact:**
– T800+ carbon fiber tight balance may extend lead times
– Rising PTFE inventory shortens procurement cycle
– New alumina capacity improves supply availability

### Action Recommendations

– **Lock in:** Carbon Fiber T700/T800 — clear uptrend, recommend locking 3-6 month volume
– **Wait & See:** PTFE Resin — further downside possible, delay large purchases; Alumina — oversupply persists, wait for lower prices
– **Normal Procurement:** PEEK Resin, PI Film, Silicon Carbide — stable pricing, no urgency

—
*Data sources: 100ppi.com, Mysteel, Oilchem.net, 1688.com, Eastmoney*
*Report date: May 2, 2026*

2026年5月2日
2026-05-02 新材料价格趋势日报

## 2026-05-02 价格趋势日报

### 价格概览表

| 材料 | 当前价格区间 | 周环比 | 趋势 |
|——|————-|——–|——|
| PTFE悬浮树脂 | 33,000-34,000元/吨 | -2.9% | ↓偏弱 |
| PEEK树脂 | 980-1,500元/公斤 | 0% | →稳定 |
| 碳纤维T700 | 220-300元/公斤 | +3.1% | ↑上涨 |
| PI薄膜(进口) | 1,500-2,000元/公斤 | 0% | →稳定 |
| 碳化硅(SiC≥98%) | 5,900-6,300元/吨 | 0% | →稳定 |
| 氧化铝 | 2,680-2,820元/吨 | -1.5% | ↓回落 |

### 重点变动

**PTFE树脂：↓偏弱**
鲁西化工报价下调1,000元/吨至34,000元/吨。氟化工下游需求偏弱，厂家库存压力上升。分散树脂报价虽维持54,000元/吨但成交清淡。萤石原料价格稳定在3,500-3,600元/吨，成本端支撑有限。

**碳纤维：↑上涨**
2026年Q1均价同比涨3.07%。吉林化纤3月宣布所有规格上调5,000元/吨。丙烯腈原料价格大幅上涨形成成本强支撑。T800及以上高端碳纤维持续供不应求，风电叶片、航空航天及低空经济需求快速增长。

**氧化铝：↓回落**
3月月均2,714元/吨环比涨3.12%，但4月冲高回落。期货主力合约4月底报2,854元/吨，较3月高点3,136元/吨回调超14%。几内亚政策扰动、新投产能落地，过剩格局不改。

### 影响分析

**对采购成本的影响：**
– 碳纤维持续上涨对复材制品企业成本压力增大，年化成本增幅约3-5%
– PTFE回落利好密封件、管件企业
– 氧化铝回落缓解陶瓷企业原料成本

**对供应链的影响：**
– 高端碳纤维T800+紧平衡，交期可能延长
– PTFE库存上升可缩短采购周期
– 氧化铝新产能释放改善供给

### 行动建议

– **建议锁定：** 碳纤维T700/T800，价格上行趋势明确，建议锁定3-6个月用量
– **建议观望：** PTFE树脂，价格仍有下行空间，延后大批量采购；氧化铝，过剩格局持续，等待更低价格
– **正常采购：** PEEK树脂、PI薄膜、碳化硅，价格平稳无紧迫性

—
*数据来源：生意社、我的钢铁网、隆众资讯、阿里巴巴1688、东方财富网*
*报告时间：2026年5月2日*

2026年5月2日

New Materials Price Trend Daily Report — May 1, 2026

Price Overview

Material	Current Price Range	WoW Change	Trend
PTFE Suspension Resin	34,000–54,000 CNY/ton	-2.9%	↓ Declining
PEEK Virgin Resin (Imported)	650–980 CNY/kg	+1.3%	↑ Slight Increase
Carbon Fiber (T300 Grade)	85,000–120,000 CNY/ton	+3.1%	↑ Rising
PI Film (Electronic Grade)	180–475 CNY/kg	0%	→ Stable
Alumina (Ceramic Grade)	2,695–2,774 CNY/ton	-0.8%	↓ Under Pressure

Key Movements

Carbon Fiber: +3.1% — The standout this week. Jilin Chemical Fiber announced a price increase of 5,000 CNY/ton across all carbon fiber specifications in early April, driven by surging acrylonitrile feedstock prices. Kaiyuan Securities notes that T800+ high-end grades remain in tight supply-demand balance, with robust demand from wind turbine blades, aerospace, and the low-altitude economy. Q1 2026 average carbon fiber prices rose 3.07% YoY. The carbon fiber concept index gained 0.47%–0.63% this week.

PTFE: -2.9% — Luxi Chemical lowered its PTFE quote to 34,000 CNY/ton, down 1,000 CNY/ton from the prior period. Domestic PTFE capacity expansion combined with sluggish demand continues to pressure prices. However, dispersion resin (Fuxin Hengtong at 54,000 CNY/ton) remains relatively firm, and imported brands (Daikin, Chemours) hold steady at 120–180 CNY/kg.

PEEK: +1.3% — The PEEK concept index edged up 1.34%. Virgin resin (Victrex 450G) is quoted at 880 CNY/kg, while the 600G grade reaches 980 CNY/kg. Domestic modified PEEK trades in the 280–350 CNY/kg range with balanced supply and demand.

PI Film: Stable — No significant price movement for electronic-grade PI film. Domestic products range from 180–475 CNY/kg, while premium imports like DuPont KAPTON exceed 2,000 CNY/kg. FPC and new energy demand supports the price floor.

Alumina: -0.8% — Spot average price around 2,774 CNY/ton, pulling back from recent highs. The futures front-month contract dipped to 2,695 CNY/ton, down over 14% from the March peak. The alumina oversupply pattern persists, with new capacity continuing to come online as the main downward pressure.

Impact Analysis

Cost Side: Rising acrylonitrile prices are the core driver of carbon fiber price increases; crude oil volatility indirectly affects PTFE and PEEK cost structures; for alumina, Guinea policy uncertainty remains the biggest supply-side variable.

Demand Side: Emerging sectors like low-altitude economy and aerospace are driving rapid demand growth for high-end carbon fiber (T800+); semiconductors and new energy continue to pull PI film and specialty ceramics demand; PTFE demand remains weak, with slower procurement in wire & cable and chemical corrosion protection.

Supply Side: PTFE and alumina overcapacity is unlikely to reverse in the short term; high-end carbon fiber grades face supply tightness, with domestic substitution accelerating but high-end capacity still limited; PEEK domestic players like Jilin Zhongyan are expanding, but import dependency remains high.

Actionable Recommendations

Lock-in Prices:

Carbon Fiber (T700/T800) — Strong cost support + robust demand; further upside expected. Recommend locking in long-term contracts.
Imported PEEK Resin — Tight supply pattern; recommend advance stocking.

Stay on the Sidelines:

PTFE Suspension Resin — In a downtrend; no rush to purchase, wait for bottom signals.
Alumina — Oversupply persists; further downside expected.

Monitor Closely:

Jilin Chemical Fiber carbon fiber price increase implementation and industry follow-through
Acrylonitrile feedstock price trends (carbon fiber cost anchor)
Guinea bauxite policy changes (alumina supply side)
PTFE capacity recovery progress post-spring maintenance

Sources: 100ppi.com, East Money, Futunn, 1688.com, Alibaba, Plasway, ChemicalBook | Report Date: May 1, 2026

2026年5月1日

2026-05-01 新材料价格趋势日报

2026年5月1日新材料价格趋势日报

价格概览表

材料	当前价格区间	周环比	趋势
PTFE悬浮树脂	34,000-54,000元/吨	-2.9%	↓ 下行
PEEK纯树脂（进口）	650-980元/千克	+1.3%	↑ 微涨
碳纤维（T300级）	85,000-120,000元/吨	+3.1%	↑ 上行
PI薄膜（电子级）	180-475元/千克	0%	→ 稳定
氧化铝（陶瓷级）	2,695-2,774元/吨	-0.8%	↓ 承压

重点变动

碳纤维：+3.1% — 本周最大亮点。吉林化纤4月初宣布全规格碳纤维涨价5,000元/吨，主因丙烯腈原料价格大幅上涨（成本端支撑）。开源证券指出，T800及以上高端品种持续供不应求，风电叶片、航空航天、低空经济等下游需求旺盛。2026年一季度碳纤维季均价较2025年同期涨3.07%。碳纤维概念板块本周收涨0.47%-0.63%。

PTFE：-2.9% — 鲁西化工聚四氟乙烯报价下调至34,000元/吨，较前期下降1,000元/吨。国内PTFE产能释放叠加需求端偏弱，价格承压。但分散树脂（阜新恒通报价54,000元/吨）相对坚挺，进口品牌（大金、科慕）价格稳定在120-180元/千克区间。

PEEK：+1.3% — PEEK概念板块微涨1.34%，纯树脂（威格斯450G）报价880元/千克，600G型号达980元/千克。国内改性PEEK价格在280-350元/千克区间，供需基本平衡。

PI薄膜：持稳 — 电子级PI薄膜价格无明显波动，国产薄膜180-475元/千克，杜邦KAPTON等进口高端产品2,000元/千克以上。下游FPC和新能源需求支撑价格底部。

氧化铝：-0.8% — 现货均价约2,774元/吨，冲高回落。期货主力合约一度下探至2,695元/吨，较3月高点回调超14%。氧化铝过剩格局未改，新投产能持续落地是主要压制因素。

影响分析

成本端：丙烯腈价格持续走高是碳纤维涨价的核心驱动力；原油价格波动对PTFE和PEEK成本端形成间接影响；氧化铝方面，几内亚政策不确定性仍是供给端最大变量。

需求端：低空经济、航空航天等新兴领域对高端碳纤维（T800+）需求快速增长；半导体和新能源持续拉动PI薄膜和特种陶瓷需求；PTFE需求端偏弱，电线电缆和化工防腐领域采购节奏放缓。

供给端：PTFE和氧化铝产能过剩格局短期难以逆转；碳纤维高端品种供给紧张，国产替代进程加速但高端产能仍有限；PEEK国内中研股份等企业扩产，但进口依赖度仍高。

行动建议

建议锁定价格：

碳纤维（T700/T800级） — 成本端支撑强劲+需求旺盛，短期仍有上行空间，建议锁定长期合同
PEEK进口树脂 — 供应格局偏紧，建议提前备货

建议观望：

PTFE悬浮树脂 — 价格下行通道中，不急于采购，可等触底信号
氧化铝 — 过剩格局持续，预计仍有下行空间

持续关注：

吉林化纤碳纤维涨价落地情况及行业跟涨态势
丙烯腈原料价格走势（碳纤维成本锚）
几内亚铝土矿政策变化（氧化铝供给端）
PTFE春检后产能恢复进度

数据来源：生意社、东方财富网、富途牛牛、1688、阿里巴巴、普拉司网、chemicalbook等 | 报告日期：2026年5月1日