Advanced Materials Price Trend Daily Report (2026-10-15)

Price Overview

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Key Price Movements

• Aluminum Nitride Powder: +2% (AI thermal-management shortage persists)

Communication-grade AlN powder holds at ¥280,000–320,000/ton. Rare-earth export controls have cut overseas top producers’ capacity by 25–30%, stretching lead times beyond 24 weeks, with high-end substrate orders backlogged into late 2027. Structural demand from AI compute hardware (1.6T optical modules, HBM packaging, AI server thermal management) keeps accelerating domestic substitution.

• PI Film: Flat for four weeks, but upstream cost pressure is surging (Q4 follow-up hike increasingly likely)

South-China electrical grade 25μm: uniaxial ¥130–170/kg, biaxial ¥190–220/kg, flat for a fourth straight week. However, upstream PMDA has climbed to ¥44,000–45,000/ton (+22–26% MoM), and DMAC has surged since September (major plant maintenance + rising acetic acid). Film producers’ margins are nearing inversion; if feedstock momentum continues, a 5–10% Q4 hike on electrical-grade film is highly plausible.

• Carbon Fiber: Flat for a fourth straight week (value-recovery cycle continues)

Guotai Dacheng T700 12K holds at ¥135/kg (tax-incl., ex-works) for four weeks; T300 12K ~¥80/kg; Changsheng Technology T700 12K ¥200/kg delivered; Jilin Chemical Fiber wet-spun 3K ¥220/kg. Acrylonitrile up 8–10% YoY provides firm cost support, while Zhongfu Shenying’s new lines cap T700 upside.

• PTFE: Medium-grain sideways (commodity weak, electronic strong)

Suspended medium-grain mainstream at ¥41,000–45,500/ton (low-end Shandong spot ¥31,800); operating rates 60–70% with soft demand. Electronic-grade PTFE, driven by AI compute infrastructure (high-frequency high-speed CCL), holds above ¥150,000/ton — the spread with commodity grades keeps widening.

• Crude Oil: High-level fluctuation, geopolitical risk underpinning prices

On Oct 14, WTI ~$94.1/barrel, Brent ~$105.7/barrel. Escalating Houthi conflict and attacks on Saudi oil facilities have raised the geopolitical premium; chemical cost pressure shows no systematic relief yet.

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Impact Analysis

• On Procurement Costs: The PI film locking window is closing fast — with PMDA up over 22% MoM, a 5–10% Q4 follow-up hike on electrical-grade film is likely; buyers without signed Q4 quotas face passive cost increases. AlN substrates may see spot premiums rise 10–15% due to long overseas lead times. PTFE and carbon fiber cost structures remain stable.

• On Supply Chain: AlN supply risk is concentrated in high-end electronic grades — prioritize domestic powder suppliers already qualified by semiconductor customers. PTFE and PI film supply is loose; industrial-grade carbon fiber is ample while high-end small-tow stays tight. The PEEK supply chain is stable, with demand supported by the first year of humanoid-robot mass production (5–7 kg per unit) and EV 800V platforms.

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Action Recommendations

• Lock in immediately: Aluminum nitride powder (structural shortage in high-end electronic grades; secure volume and pricing during the domestic-substitution window); PI film (PMDA/DMAC cost pass-through is imminent — sign Q4 quotas early).
• Lock in: Carbon fiber T700 and above (cost support + value recovery; prices likely to hold firm or rise short term).
• Watch: PTFE commodity grades (buyer’s market; restock in phases on dips); electronic grade remains firm — procure as needed.
• Procure as needed: Domestic PEEK resin (stable pricing; match purchases to production schedule); time premium imported grades around favorable FX windows.

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Sources: Longzhong Information/MySteel (Oct 8–14, 2026), Shengyi Society PTFE Channel, Fluorine Online, ChemicalBook, China Fund News/FX678 (oil prices, Oct 14, 2026).