Advanced Materials Price Trend Daily Report (2026-10-16)

Price Overview

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Key Price Movements

• Aluminum Nitride Powder: +2% (AI thermal-management shortage persists)

Communication-grade AlN powder holds at ¥280,000–320,000/ton. Rare-earth export controls have cut overseas top producers’ capacity by 25–30%, with lead times beyond 24 weeks and high-end substrate orders backlogged into late 2027. Demand from AI compute hardware (1.6T optical modules, HBM packaging, AI server thermal management) keeps growing structurally, accelerating domestic substitution.

• PI Film: Flat for a fifth straight week, upstream cost pressure keeps building

South-China electrical grade 25μm: uniaxial ¥130–170/kg, biaxial ¥190–220/kg (Shandong: uniaxial ¥110–140, biaxial ¥170–190/kg). Upstream DMAC surged 9.04% within the week to ¥7,480/ton (+49.3% YoY), while PMDA holds at ¥44,000–45,000/ton (+22–26% MoM). Film producers’ margins are nearing inversion; a Q4 follow-up hike of 5–10% on electrical-grade film remains highly likely.

• Carbon Fiber: Flat for a fifth straight week

Guotai Dacheng T700 12K holds at ¥135/kg (tax-incl., ex-works); T300 12K ~¥80/kg. Acrylonitrile up 8–10% YoY provides firm cost support, while Zhongfu Shenying’s new lines keep expanding effective supply and cap T700’s upside.

• PTFE Resin: Flat (commodity weak, electronic strong)

Suspended medium-grain mainstream at ¥41,000–45,500/ton (low-end Shandong spot ¥31,800); the Shengyi Society benchmark sits unchanged at ¥43,000/ton. Operating rates at 60–70% with soft downstream demand. Electronic-grade PTFE, driven by AI compute infrastructure (high-frequency high-speed CCL), holds above ¥150,000/ton, with the spread vs commodity grades still widening.

• Crude Oil: Geopolitics vs weakening demand — high-level oscillation

On Oct 15, WTI settled at $95.09/barrel (+1.01%) and Brent at $106.06/barrel (+0.35%). The IEA monthly report notes that disrupted Middle East and Russian exports have intensified global refined-product supply tightness, with diesel inventories falling sharply and the squeeze expected to persist into 2027; meanwhile the IMF flags high prices cutting 2026 global oil demand by ~2.6 million bpd.

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Impact Analysis

• On Procurement Costs: The PI film locking window is closing fast — DMAC up 9% in a week and nearly 50% YoY. If feedstock momentum continues, a Q4 hike of 5–10% on electrical-grade film is plausible; confirm Q4 quotas before producers move. AlN overseas delivery delays may lift spot premiums by 10–15%. Cost structures for carbon fiber, PTFE and PEEK remain stable with no systematic upward pressure.

• On Supply Chain: AlN overseas lead times now exceed 24 weeks — supply risk is concentrated in high-end electronic grades; prioritize domestic powder suppliers already qualified by semiconductor customers. PTFE and PI film supply is loose; industrial-grade carbon fiber is ample while high-end small-tow stays tight; the PEEK supply chain is stable. The IEA’s warning that refined-product tightness may last into 2027 keeps mid-term chemical energy costs elevated.

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Action Recommendations

• Lock in: Aluminum nitride powder (high-end electronic grades in structural shortage; secure volume and pricing during the domestic-substitution window)
• Lock in: Electrical-grade PI film (DMAC/PMDA surging upstream; lock Q4 quotas before producer hikes)
• Lock in: Carbon fiber T700 and above (cost support + value recovery; prices likely to hold firm or rise short term)
• Watch: PTFE commodity grades (buyer’s market; restock in phases on dips)
• Procure as needed: Domestic PEEK pure resin and calcined alumina (stable pricing; buy per production schedule)

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Sources: Shengyi Society (PTFE/fluorochemicals/commodity gainers list), Mysteel (polyimide daily), Longzhong Information, ChemicalBook, Metal China (Antaike alumina quotes), China Fund News/Xinhua Finance (crude oil), IEA Oil Market Report.