2026-06-18 New Materials Price Trend Daily Report

# 2026-06-18 New Materials Price Trend Daily Report

## Price Overview Table

| Material | Current Price Range | Week-over-Week | Trend |
|——|————-|——–|——|
| PTFE Resin | 31,800-33,000 RMB/ton | +1.2% | ↑ Slightly Up |
| PEEK Resin | 260,000-286,000 RMB/ton | 0% | → Stable at High |
| Carbon Fiber T300 | 85 RMB/kg | -39% (vs. early year) | ↓ Continuous Decline |
| Carbon Fiber T700 | 145 RMB/kg | -37% (vs. early year) | ↓ Continuous Decline |
| PI Film | 160-558 RMB/kg | 0% | → Stable |
| Silicon Nitride Powder | 180-300 RMB/kg | 0% | → Stable |
| Alumina | 2,705 RMB/ton | 0% | → Stable |

## Key Changes

### 1. PTFE Resin: Slight Increase (+1.2%)
**Current Price**: 33,000 RMB/ton (June 16)
**Reason Analysis**:
– Upstream fluorite price support: Fluorite concentrate FC-97 priced at 3,450-3,500 RMB/ton, providing cost support
– High-end application demand growth: AI server Rubin architecture (shipping in H2 2026) drives high-end PTFE CCL demand, with individual sheet selling at ~2,500 RMB
– Supply side: Manufacturers like Fuxin Hengtong have low inventory and moderate operating rates, leading to tight supply

### 2. Carbon Fiber: Price Plunge (Halved from 2022 Peak)
**Current Price**:
– T300(12K): 85 RMB/kg
– T700(12K): 145 RMB/kg
– Large-tow T300(48K/50K): 72 RMB/kg

**Reason Analysis**:
– Severe overcapacity: Q1 2024 added 6,800 tons of capacity, Q2 added 4,000 tons; expansion projects from Sinopec, Jilin Chemical Fiber, Donghua Energy, etc. coming online successively
– Weak demand: China’s carbon fiber demand in 2023 was 69,100 tons, down 7.2% YoY; May 2024 apparent consumption decreased by ~16% YoY
– Supply-demand imbalance: Supply growth far exceeds demand recovery, inventory pileup cannot be relieved in the short term

### 3. PEEK Resin: Stable at High Level
**Current Price**: 260,000-286,000 RMB/ton (260-286 RMB/kg)
**Reason Analysis**:
– Oligopolistic supply: Dominated by few manufacturers like Victrex (UK) and Jilin Zhongyan, limited capacity release
– Strong demand growth: Domestic PEEK demand expected to exceed 16.7 billion RMB in 2027; single AI server usage 5-7kg, value 3,500-7,500 RMB
– Applied in high-end fields like aerospace, medical, and electronics, with low price sensitivity

### 4. Special Ceramic Raw Materials: Stable Prices
**Current Price**:
– Silicon nitride powder: 180-300 RMB/kg
– Alumina (Al2O3≥98.5%): 2,705 RMB/ton
– Spherical alumina (45μm): 215-390 RMB/kg

**Reason Analysis**:
– Sufficient supply: Stable domestic capacity, many suppliers in Shandong, Hubei, Guangdong, etc.
– Stable demand: Mainly used in electronic ceramics, thermal conductive materials, precision ceramic parts, with slow demand growth
– No significant supply-demand contradiction

## Impact Factor Analysis

### Crude Oil Price Impact
**Current Oil Price**: Brent crude ~81 USD/barrel (June 17), WTI ~80 USD/barrel
**Impact Mechanism**:
1. **Cost transmission**: PTFE and other fluorochemical products start from fluorite, affected by energy costs; oil price drop from 120 USD peak relieves cost pressure
2. **Downstream demand**: Oil price decline reduces logistics and manufacturing costs, but limited pull on new material demand
3. **Forecast**: EIA predicts 2026 Brent average price at 59 USD/barrel, WTI at 51-65 USD/barrel; oil price center moving down, weakening cost support for chemicals

### Supply Tightness Factors
1. **PTFE**: Low inventory, tight supply of high-end products (driven by AI server demand)
2. **Carbon fiber**: Severe oversupply, low capacity utilization
3. **PEEK**: Oligopoly, limited capacity expansion

### Demand Growth Factors
1. **AI computing power explosion**: PTFE CCL, PEEK (lightweight high-performance parts) demand growth
2. **New energy**: Carbon fiber applications in wind power, hydrogen storage weak, demand below expectation
3. **Electronics**: PI film demand stable in flexible circuits, chip packaging

## Impact on Procurement Costs

| Material | Procurement Cost Impact | Recommendation |
|——|————-|——|
| PTFE Resin | Cost up 1-2% | Can lock in Q3 usage |
| PEEK Resin | Cost stable at high | Purchase as needed, no hoarding |
| Carbon Fiber | Cost down 30-40% | Excellent procurement window, can increase inventory |
| PI Film | Cost stable | Normal procurement |
| Special Ceramics | Cost stable | Normal procurement |

## Impact on Supply Chain

1. **PTFE Industry Chain**:
– Upstream fluorite → hydrofluoric acid → PTFE resin → PTFE CCL → AI servers
– High-end capacity concentrated in leaders (Haohua Technology, Dongyue Group, Shengyi Technology, Zhongying Technology benefit)
– Traditional fiberglass cloth supply chain faces substitution pressure

2. **Carbon Fiber Industry Chain**:
– Overcapacity leads to price war, profitability pressure on small/medium manufacturers
– Listed companies like GW Composite, Zhongjian Technology, Zhongfu Shenying report declining performance
– Industry consolidation accelerating, backward capacity exiting

3. **PEEK Industry Chain**:
– Concentrated supply, weak downstream bargaining power
– High import dependency (foreign brands like Victrex dominate)

## Action Recommendations

### Materials Recommended to Lock in Price
1. **PTFE Resin**:
– Reason: AI server demand pull + low inventory + cost support
– Action: Lock in Q3 usage, target price 32,000-33,000 RMB/ton
– Suppliers: Prioritize leading manufacturers like Haohua Technology, Dongyue Group

2. **PEEK Resin**:
– Reason: Supply oligopoly + demand growth + stable high price
– Action: Sign long-term agreements with suppliers like Victrex to lock in annual usage
– Alternative: Evaluate domestic substitutes like Jilin Zhongyan (better cost-performance)

### Materials Recommended to Wait-and-See
1. **Carbon Fiber**:
– Reason: Overcapacity + weak demand + continuous price decline
– Action: Purchase as needed, no hoarding; wait for industry consolidation before increasing procurement
– Opportunity: T700 carbon fiber price has dropped to 145 RMB/kg, consider strategic reserve (if demand on application side)

2. **PI Film**:
– Reason: Stable price, no significant upward momentum
– Action: Normal procurement pace, no need to lock in advance

3. **Special Ceramic Raw Materials**:
– Reason: Sufficient supply, stable prices
– Action: Normal procurement, can select suppliers with optimal cost-performance

## Risk Warnings
1. **Geopolitical risk**: If US-Iran conflict escalates, may cause oil price spike, pushing up chemical costs
2. **Capacity release risk**: Continuous release of new carbon fiber capacity may further drive down prices
3. **Lower-than-expected demand**: If downstream demand from new energy, AI servers, etc. falls below expectation, will affect upstream material prices
4. **Exchange rate fluctuation**: Imported materials like PEEK affected by RMB exchange rate, need to monitor exchange rate risk

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**Report Date**: June 18, 2026
**Data Sources**: ChemicalBook, 100PPI, Xianji China, CBC Metal Network, etc.
**Next Report**: June 25, 2026