2026-09-01 Price Trend Daily Report
Price Overview
| Material | Current Price Range | WoW | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| PTFE resin (suspension, medium granule) | RMB 31.8k–46k/t | -1%~0% | Under pressure / diverging |
| PEEK resin (domestic virgin) | RMB 300k–400k/t | 0% | Stable, soft bias |
| Carbon fiber (T300/12K) | RMB 90–100/kg | 0% (MoM +5%) | Bottoming, rebounding |
| PI film (electronic grade) | RMB 180–255/kg (premium 200–500/kg) | +1%~+2% | Strong uptrend |
| Specialty ceramic (high-end zirconia) | Powder +10–40%; alumina RMB 2,700–2,800/t | Diverging | High/low decoupling |
Key Movements
- PTFE: General-purpose suspension medium granule has retreated from the June peak of RMB 52k/t to RMB 44k–46k/t (low-end Shandong quote RMB 31.8k/t); the intra-month spread exceeds 40%. High-end electronic and Li-battery fine grades are more resilient. Overcapacity and destocking pressure block cost pass-through, yet fluorspar and anhydrous HF are up ~40% YTD, keeping a firm cost floor; a 5–10% catch-up hike is likely by end-Q3.
- Carbon fiber: T300/12K at RMB 100/kg (MoM +5.3%), T300/25K RMB 90/kg (+5.9%), 3K RMB 220/kg. Toray’s 10–20% hike since January and Jilin Chemical Fiber’s follow-through, plus demand from eVTOL, wind, and aerospace, confirm a bottom reversal despite still-negative margins (-RMB 10,002/t).
- PI film: A second round of +20% hikes is confirmed. Kaneka raised global prices 20% in April and is preparing another increase; supply is concentrated among 5–6 overseas players with no new capacity before 2030. Demand (28kt) outstrips supply (18kt), and the shortage extends beyond 2028.
- High-end zirconia: Sinocera raised powder prices 10–40% from Jul 27; Tosoh halted dental powder supply on a yttria shortage, creating a ~6kt/yr high-end gap. Commodity zirconia softens with zircon sand (~RMB 113k/t), so the high and low ends are fully decoupled.
Impact Analysis
- Procurement cost: PI film and high-end zirconia are the highest-conviction inflation trades — secure volume first. Carbon fiber’s cost floor (acrylonitrile +8% in early August) is set, and RMB 90/kg T300 is an effective bottom. General PTFE is near cash cost, limiting downside.
- Supply chain: High-end PI film and zirconia supply is concentrated among overseas oligopolies locked by long-term contracts; under geopolitics and trade friction, disruption risk outweighs price risk — dual-sourcing is advised for critical programs. Elevated crude (Brent briefly above USD 94, now ~USD 89) underpins the chemical cost center.
Action Recommendations
- Lock in: PI film (electronic grade), high-end YSZ zirconia, carbon fiber (T300 large-tow / T700); build PTFE general-grade inventory at current lows.
- Wait and see: Alumina and commodity ceramic feedstock (oversupplied, low-range consolidation); domestic PEEK (supply outpacing demand, soft bias — negotiate lower).
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