# New Materials Industry Hot Keyword Analysis Report (2026-10-09)
## Keyword Heat Overview
| Keyword | Heat | Competition | Trend | Key Data |
|———|——|————-|——-|———-|
| PTFE | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | High | → Stable | Suspended medium-grain flat at ¥43,000/ton; electronic grade above ¥150,000/ton, spread widening |
| PEEK | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Mid-High | ↑ Strong | Domestic pure resin ¥320,000-380,000/ton; 6.6-6.9kg per humanoid robot; Victrex 450CA30 spot ¥688/kg |
| Carbon Fiber | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | High | ↑ Diverging Up | T700 12K ¥100-140/kg; Zhongfu Shenying 3 world-class lines on stream; acrylonitrile +8-10% YoY |
| Specialty Ceramics | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Mid-High | ↑ High-End Shortage | 2026 global precision ceramics $18.5B (+6.8%); AlN powder ¥280,000-320,000/ton, 24-week+ lead times |
| Electronic Chemicals | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | High | ↑↑ Explosive | **Price hikes + export controls: rejection rate 0.96%→79.2%; Tongcheng ArF revenue +300%** |
| Aerogel | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Mid-High | ↑ Mandate-Driven | Li-battery aerogel market $1.39B in 2026 (+26.4%); GB38031 in force |
—
## 1. Electronic Chemicals: Hikes + Export Controls, Substitution Moves from Qualification to Volume (Today’s Headline)
**Price event**: JSR, TOK and Shin-Etsu began executing new pricing on October 1 — baseline +15% across all grades, HBM immersion ArF up to +24%, premium ArF contracts +16-22%, 3D NAND thick-film KrF +18-20%, spot orders +32-38%.
**The harsher signal — export controls tightening in substance**:
– November 2025: Japan added ArF and EUV photoresists to its export control list, stretching approval from 30 to 90 days
– August 2026: Japan canceled the last batch of general licenses — the **rejection rate surged from 0.96% to 79.2%**
– Overseas share of premium ArF/EUV exceeds 90%; the three Japanese majors hold over half the global market
**Hikes plus controls change the substitution equation**: Interviews by TMTPost with Huahong, SIC and Silan fabs confirm domestic photoresist qualification cycles have shortened from 1-2 years to **6-12 months**.
**Domestic volume proof points**:
– **Tongcheng New Materials**: H1 2026 electronic chemicals revenue ¥693M (+56.9%), with **ArF and BARC up nearly 300% YoY**; semiconductor photoresist and ancillaries ¥286M (+~50%); display photoresist domestic share above 30%; 60+ KrF products (>10% local share) and 100+ G/I-line products (>35% local share); listed on HKEX September 29, raising ~HK$2.90B net for KrF/ArF R&D
– **Dinglong**: 300t KrF/ArF line in production since March 2026; 8 products with batch orders from leading fabs; million-yuan contracts running into 2027
– **Nanda Optoelectronics**: first in China to reach volume production of 28nm ArF photoresist
– **Zhongjuxin**: H1 electronic specialty gases and precursors revenue +136.78%
**Demand resonance**: Yangtze Memory’s Phase III fab has for the first time sourced over 50% domestic equipment; semiconductor equipment localization jumped from 15-30% to ~35%. SEMI sees 2026 global equipment sales at $165.9B (+23.2%).
**Localization**: overall ~20%; G/I lines broadly available, KrF ~10%, ArF below 5%, EUV blank. The 15th Five-Year Plan for electronic information manufacturing names premium photoresist as a key material.
**Actions**:
– 🔒 Lock Q4 contract quotas now; avoid the spot channel (+32-38%)
– 🎯 Prioritize HBM immersion ArF and 3D NAND thick-film KrF — steepest hikes, strongest substitution intent
– 📋 Use the 6-12 month qualification window; target supply chains already shipping in volume
– ⚠️ A 79.2% rejection rate makes supply security a hard requirement, not a preference — but domestic capacity remains limited; do not extrapolate revenue linearly
—
## 2. Specialty Ceramics: High-End Shortage vs. Low-End Saturation
**Market size**: 2026 global precision ceramics ~$18.5B (+6.8%); China above ¥42B (~22.7% of global). China’s advanced ceramic components market ¥18.5B (+14.2%) — semiconductor equipment 32% of demand, NEV 28%.
**Si3N4 leads growth**: fastest-growing segment (etch components, bearings) at ~9.2% CAGR globally; +22.3% domestically, top of all categories.
**AlN still tight**: communication-grade AlN powder at ¥280,000-320,000/ton; overseas capacity down 25-30% on rare-earth export controls, lead times beyond 24 weeks, premium substrate orders backlogged into late 2027. Multiple domestic AlN powders entered downstream batch qualification in September.
**Actions**:
– 🔒 Lock AlN powder and premium Si3N4; prefer domestic suppliers already certified by semiconductor customers
– 🎯 Focus on AI thermal management, HBM packaging and semiconductor equipment parts; avoid low-end LED-substrate price wars
—
## 3. PTFE: Commodity Grade Sideways, Electronic Spread Widening
**Price**: suspended medium-grain benchmark flat at ¥43,000/ton; dispersion resin ~¥44,000/ton; dispersion emulsion ~¥28,000/ton; Shandong spot ¥32,000-33,000/ton with wide quote dispersion.
**Structural bright spot**: AI compute infrastructure is pulling low-Dk electronic-grade PTFE for high-frequency CCL (a core material in NVIDIA Rubin Ultra orthogonal backplanes); premium electronic grade has broken ¥150,000/ton — more than 3x commodity pricing.
**Actions**: commodity grade is a buyer’s market — restock on dips; track electronic-grade qualification windows in the high-frequency CCL supply chain.
—
## 4. PEEK: Robot Engine Keeps Firing, Domestic Capacity Landing
**Price**: domestic pure resin ¥320,000-380,000/ton; Victrex 450CA30 (30% CF) spot ~¥688/kg; imported profile stock ¥900-1,300/kg; domestic injection pellets ~¥600/kg.
**Drivers**: 6.6-6.9kg per humanoid robot — 1M units = 6,600-6,900t of new demand; eVTOL and 800V platforms add pull. The 15th Five-Year Plan lists PAEK as strategic materials. Zhongyan, Junhua and Pengfulong have completed scale capacity; the industry is extending into polymerization-modification-injection full chains.
**Actions**: robot supply-chain qualification takes 3-5 years — bind early with head OEMs; buy domestic resin as needed; time premium imports around FX windows.
—
## 5. Carbon Fiber: “Divergent Pricing” Confirmed
| Grade | Price |
|——-|——-|
| T300 12K | ¥80-90/kg |
| T700 12K | ¥100-140/kg (Guotai Dacheng ¥135/kg ex-tax ex-works; Changsheng ¥200/kg delivered) |
| T800 class | ¥180-240/kg |
| Aerospace/T1200 | ¥800-1,200/kg |
| Jilin Chemical wet 3K | ¥220/kg |
**Supply**: Zhongfu Shenying’s 3 world-class lines in production with >95% equipment localization; T1100-class high-modulus volumes rising on wind and drone demand.
**Cost**: acrylonitrile +8-10% YoY; two rounds of +¥5,000-10,000/t hikes by Jilin Chemical, Guangwei et al. in H1 2026.
**New growth**: humanoid robots (5-7kg/unit), eVTOL and Type-IV hydrogen tanks (+35%).
**Actions**: buy industrial T300/T700 large-tow on dips; lock 3-6 months of T800+; note Zhongfu’s new capacity caps T700 upside — differentiate by grade.
—
## 6. Aerogel: Li-Battery Applications on a Steep Curve
**Market size**: global aerogel for lithium batteries $1.10B (2025) → **$1.39B in 2026 (+26.4%)** → $6.93B by 2032 (CAGR 30.15%). Power-battery aerogel insulation ~$476M in 2026 (+26.5%). Asia-Pacific holds ~58.7%.
**Regulation**: GB 38031-2025 (effective July 1) requires no fire/explosion for 2 hours after thermal runaway and monitored points below 60°C — aerogel sheets are now a compliance requirement. GM, Toyota, Audi and Mercedes already use aerogel at production scale.
**Cost curve**: ambient-pressure drying cuts costs another 20-30% vs. supercritical — mass commercialization threshold crossed; low-end blankets remain commoditized (~40% below 5 years ago).
**Actions**:
– 🔒 Automotive-grade aerogel sheets are queued — enter battery-maker AVLs early
– 📉 Avoid low-end commodity blanket capacity
– 🌍 European OEM qualification windows open (Aspen doubled EU thermal-barrier guidance to $20-30M) — export suppliers should capture series-production ramps
—
## Action Summary
| Priority | Category | Action | Window |
|———-|———-|——–|——–|
| 🔴 Highest | Photoresist (immersion ArF / thick KrF) | Lock Q4 contract quotas + use qualification window | Now |
| 🔴 Highest | AlN powder, premium Si3N4 | Lock price + switch to certified domestic suppliers | Now |
| 🟠 High | T800+ carbon fiber | Lock 3-6 months of volume | October |
| 🟠 High | Electronic-grade PTFE (HF CCL) | Track qualification windows | Q4 |
| 🟡 Medium | PEEK domestic resin | Buy as needed; bind to robot OEMs | Ongoing |
| 🟡 Medium | Automotive aerogel sheets | Enter battery-maker AVLs | Q4 |
| 🟢 Low | Commodity PTFE, industrial large-tow CF, generic blankets | Buyer’s market — restock on dips | Ongoing |
—
*Sources: ESM China, Eastmoney, Sina Finance, 10jqka, TMTPost, SCI99 (100ppi), Fluorine Online, Longzhong Information, SEMI, Morgan Stanley research, PW Consulting, Fact.MR, GEP Research, public industry research (October 2026).*
*Report generated: 2026-10-09 01:01 (Asia/Shanghai)*
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