# New Materials Industry Hot Keyword Analysis Report (2026-10-07)
## Keyword Overview
| Keyword | Heat | Competition | Trend | Key Data |
|———|——|————-|——-|———-|
| PTFE | High | High | → Stabilizing | Suspended medium-grain flat at RMB 43,000/ton; electronic grade structurally firm on AI compute |
| PEEK | High | Medium-High | ↑ Strong | 5-7 kg per humanoid robot; domestic pure resin RMB 320-380k/ton |
| Carbon Fiber | High | High | ↑ Diverging Up | T700 12K at RMB 135/kg stable; Changsheng quotes RMB 200/kg; ZFS 3 world-class lines commissioned |
| Specialty Ceramics | Medium-High | Medium-High | ↑ Leading | AlN powder RMB 280-320k/ton; high-end substrate backlog into late 2027 |
| Electronic Chemicals | High | High | ↑↑ Breakout | **Japanese trio hiked prices from Oct 1: +15% base, immersion ArF for HBM up to +24%** |
| Aerogel | Medium-High | Medium-High | ↑ Mandatory | China RMB 4.85B, +18-22%; GB38031 now enforced for new models |
| PI Film | Medium-High | High | ↑ Structurally Tight | Global CAGR 5.8% (2026-2035); FPC accounts for 40% of demand |
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## 1. Electronic Chemicals: Japanese Trio’s Joint Price Hike Opens the Localization Window (Today’s Top Story)
**Price event**: JSR, Tokyo Ohka Kogyo and Shin-Etsu Chemical jointly announced a new global pricing framework effective **October 1, 2026**. Together the three hold a 60.5%-70% share of the global photoresist market and control roughly 80% of high-end ArF shipments.
**Hike structure (the more critical the material, the steeper the increase)**:
| Category | Increase |
|———-|———-|
| All-category base | **+15%** |
| Immersion ArF for HBM | **+24%** (highest) |
| High-end ArF long-term agreements | +16% ~ +22% |
| Thick-film KrF for 3D NAND | +18% ~ +20% |
| Standard KrF grades | +9% ~ +14% |
| Spot / non-contract orders | **+32% ~ +38%** |
**Drivers**: On the demand side, the AI compute boom is driving HBM and leading-node capacity expansion. On the supply side, Japanese capacity is shifting toward EUV and high-end ArF, squeezing mature-node supply. On cost, upstream resin, photoacid generators (PAG) and energy are rising, while export-control approvals lengthen compliance cycles.
**How fabs actually responded**: Multiple leading Chinese fabs called the impact “limited” — photoresist accounts for only ~1% of chip manufacturing cost. A 20% hike adds only a few RMB per wafer, negligible against advanced-node chips worth tens of thousands of RMB each.
**The real variable is the qualification timetable**: The basic qualification cycle for domestic photoresist has been compressed from 1-2 years to **6-12 months** — testing opportunities have doubled in speed.
**Localization status**: g/i-line already above 30%; KrF around 10% (another estimate: 1%-8%); ArF around 5% (another estimate: below 1%); EUV essentially nil.
**Domestic progress**:
– **Hengkun New Materials**: ArF photoresist already in small-batch supply
– **Nata Opto**: ArF passed SMIC qualification, small-batch supply
– **Tongcheng New Materials**: H1 2026 ArF photoresist revenue up **48% YoY**
– **Jiuri New Materials**: G-line and I-line photoresist generating small revenue
– Around **38** core domestic companies in semiconductor photoresist and upstream materials; nearly 20 listed on the A-share market
**Market size**: China’s photoresist market reached RMB 19.806B in 2025 (+23.2%). The IC segment was RMB 6.637B and is forecast at **RMB 7.794B in 2026 (+17.43%)**.
**Wet chemicals rising in tandem**: The global market was USD 10.102B in 2024, with ICs accounting for ~70.2%. Global shares: Europe/US 30%, Japan 27%, Taiwan China 18%, Chinese mainland 14%, South Korea 10%. China’s wet electronic chemicals are projected at RMB 25.71B in 2026 on 4.90M tons of demand; G5-grade localization remains below 20% — a second substitution window.
**Corroborating signals**: Birla Carbon announced a price increase of up to 15% on specialty materials in Asia effective October 1, citing geopolitical instability and rising feedstock costs. Lens Technology’s procurement director publicly stated that “2026 is a price-increase year — electronic materials, memory chips and chemical feedstocks are rising across the board.”
**Actions**:
– 🔒 **Lock prices now**: Fabs with long-term agreements should confirm Q4 quotas immediately to avoid the spot channel (where hikes reach 32%-38%)
– 📋 **Accelerate qualification**: Upstream suppliers should exploit the 6-12 month window and target fabs that have already qualified domestic material
– 🎯 **Priority segments**: Immersion ArF for HBM and thick-film KrF for 3D NAND show the steepest hikes and the strongest substitution intent
– ⚠️ **Risk note**: Japanese suppliers have not cut off supply, and fabs remain cautious about switching core materials. The real gating factor for domestic volume ramp is long-term process-stability trust — do not extrapolate linearly on a “supply cutoff” thesis
—
## 2. Specialty Ceramics: AlN Powder Leads the Shortage Rally
**Price**: Telecom-grade aluminum nitride (AlN) powder has climbed to **RMB 280-320k/ton**, a clear step up from prior years. With thermal conductivity of 170-230 W/m·K — far above conventional alumina ceramics — AlN is a must-have substrate for 1.6T optical modules, HBM advanced packaging and AI server thermal management.
**Supply-demand gap**: China’s AlN powder gap was 1,950t in 2022 and is projected to widen to **3,100t by 2025**, with high-end electronic-grade powder structurally short.
**Overseas supply deterioration**: Rare-earth export controls have cut overseas head producers’ capacity by **25%-30%**, stretched lead times beyond **24 weeks**, and backlogged high-end substrate orders into **late 2027**.
**Price stratification by purity** (a 75x spread):
| Grade | Purity | Price |
|——-|——–|——-|
| Standard industrial | 99.0%-99.5% | RMB 200-500/kg |
| High purity | ≥99.9% | RMB 500-2,000/kg |
| Electronic high purity | ~99.995% | RMB 2,000-5,000/kg |
| 5N high purity | 99.999% | RMB 5,000-15,000/kg |
**Cost side**: Yttrium oxide, used as a sintering aid, rose 7.2% YoY in 2025, directly adding about 4 percentage points to substrate production cost.
**Structural divergence**: Low-end AlN substrate unit prices fell from USD 38/piece in 2024 to USD 32/piece in 2026, with price-war pressure concentrated in mature applications such as LED substrates. High-end substrates are rising in both volume and price.
**Other segments**: Metallurgical-grade alumina remains weak at ~RMB 2,673/ton. Sinocera’s new-energy materials segment posted H1 2026 revenue of RMB 339M (+56.5%) at 34.7% gross margin, with its sulfide solid-state electrolyte line completed.
**Actions**:
– 🔒 **Lock prices now** on AlN powder and high-end silicon nitride — overseas lead times keep deteriorating; prioritize domestic suppliers already qualified by semiconductor customers
– ⚡ **Choose segments carefully**: Low-end LED substrate is still in a price war — do not expand blindly; concentrate resources on AI thermal management and HBM packaging
– 💡 **Cost optimization**: For thermal-filler applications, blending micron-scale powders (e.g. D50=1μm with D50=5μm) can approach spherical-powder packing density at 30%-50% lower cost
—
## 3. PTFE: Commodity Grades Flat, Electronic Grade Structurally Strong
**Price** (Fluorine Online, October 4; RMB/ton, all flat WoW):
| Category | Price | WoW |
|———-|——-|—–|
| Suspended medium-grain | 43,000 | 0% |
| Dispersion resin | 44,000 | 0% |
| Dispersion emulsion | 28,000 | 0% |
**Spot grade quotes**: Daikin M-18 (UL94 V0, high molecular weight) ~RMB 110/kg; DuPont MP1400 ~RMB 138/kg; Solvay ALGOFLON A20 flame-retardant ~RMB 175/kg; engineering-grade MP1200 ~RMB 260/kg.
**Outlook**: Commodity-grade supply remains loose with no directional breakout. The real structural opportunity lies in electronic grade — AI compute infrastructure is driving demand for low-dielectric PTFE resin used in high-frequency copper-clad laminates (CCL), and the price spread between electronic and commodity grades keeps widening.
**Actions**:
– Commodity resin is a buyer’s market — restock in phases on dips
– Watch closely for the qualification window for electronic-grade PTFE in high-frequency CCL supply chains — the single most valuable structural opportunity this year
—
## 4. PEEK: The Humanoid Robot Engine Keeps Igniting
**Price**: Domestic pure resin **RMB 320-380k/ton**. Spot quotes: Victrex 450G ~RMB 230/kg (trader spot); Evonik Degussa 2000CF30 (30% CF) ~RMB 310/kg; Zhongyan 770CA30 (30% CF) ~RMB 568/kg; Victrex 450CA30 ~RMB 688/kg.
**Core driver**: Each humanoid robot uses about **5-7 kg** of PEEK; every 1 million robots adds 6,600-6,900 tons of demand. eVTOL and semi-solid-state battery thermal management support premium grades. Domestic 10,000-ton capacity (Ningbo Huaxiang, 12,000t) landing further widens the domestic cost-performance advantage.
**Actions**:
– Robot supply-chain qualification takes 3-5 years — early binding with head OEMs has long-term value
– Buy domestic resin as needed; time imported premium grades around favorable FX windows
—
## 5. Carbon Fiber: Bottom Confirmed, a “Divergent Pricing” Cycle Begins
**Price** (Longzhong Information, September 30):
| Company / Grade | Quote |
|—————–|——-|
| Guotai Dacheng T700 12K | RMB 135/kg (incl. tax, ex-works; stable for two weeks) |
| Changsheng Technology T700 12K | RMB 200/kg (incl. tax, delivered) |
| Jilin Chemical Fiber wet-spun 3K | RMB 220/kg |
| T300 12K | ~RMB 80/kg |
**Major supply-side change**: Zhongfu Shenying (ZFS) **commissioned 3 world-class carbon fiber lines** in a concentrated rollout, with core equipment localization exceeding 95% — a step up in effective domestic supply.
**Cost support**: Acrylonitrile average price rose 8%-10% YoY in 2026, providing firm cost support.
**Trend**: The industry is exiting its “price war” and entering a “value-return plus divergent pricing” cycle. Expected ranges: T300 12K at RMB 75-85/kg; T700 12K at RMB 140-160/kg; aerospace-grade T800+ small-tow holding at RMB 220-260/kg.
**New growth poles**: EV lightweighting demand of 13,000t in 2026 (+25%); hydrogen storage vessels at 8,000t.
**Actions**:
– Buy industrial T300/T700 large-tow on dips
– Supply of T800+ premium grades stays tight — lock 3-6 months of volume
– ⚠️ ZFS’s new capacity creates upward resistance in the T700 segment; be selective by grade when going long
—
## 6. Aerogel: Regulatory Mandate Meets European Ramp
**Market size**: China’s aerogel insulation market is about **RMB 4.85B** in 2026 (+18%-22%). Another estimate puts the global market at RMB 8.5B with China at ~35%. Global capacity has surpassed 12 million m²/year, with China the largest production base.
**Price**: Rapid capacity expansion has pushed ordinary blanket prices roughly 40% below their level five years ago, with mainstream prices at RMB 150-300/m². Supply-demand is shifting from shortage toward balance.
**Demand structure (China)**:
– Building insulation ~45% (largest base)
– **EV battery thermal management**: consumes ~35% of national aerogel blanket volume in 2026, a segment worth about RMB 1.5B
– LNG storage and transport: aerogel composites expected to reach 28% share in terminals and carriers
– Hydrogen storage equipment penetration expected to exceed 15% by end-2026
**Regulatory engine**: China’s **GB 38031-2025** requires battery packs to show no fire and no explosion after thermal runaway, **enforced for new vehicle types since July 1, 2026**. The rule turns the inter-cell thermal barrier from a design choice into a compliance item, and aerogel pads are among the thinnest viable options.
**European ramp**: In August 2026 Aspen Aerogels raised its 2026 European thermal barrier revenue outlook from USD 10-15M to **USD 20-30M**, with Q2 thermal barrier revenue alone at USD 29.5M. JIOS (Thermal Blade), Alkegen (AlkeGel) and Cabot (ENTERA) are qualifying alongside, as European carmakers move from pilot builds to series production.
**Customer structure upgrade**: Wanhua Chemical’s October 2024 framework tender required bidders to hold at least RMB 100M in prior aerogel supply contracts — large chemical operators have shifted to multi-year agreement purchasing.
**Actions**:
– 🔒 Automotive-grade aerogel insulation pads are the highest-certainty growth track — get onto EV battery makers’ approved supplier lists early
– 📉 Ordinary blanket grades face intense price competition (40% below five years ago) — avoid low-end commoditized products
– 🌍 European OEM qualification windows are open; export-oriented suppliers should seize this series-production ramp
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## 7. PI Film (Supplementary Observation)
The global PI film market is forecast to grow at a **5.8% CAGR** over 2026-2035. FPCs are the largest end-use sector, at about 40% of global demand, growing at 6.2% CAGR.
**Price reference**: Electronic-grade PI insulation film ~RMB 275/kg; conductive-grade PI ~RMB 2,800/kg; DuPont Vespel SCP-5000 ~RMB 3,500/kg.
**Supply upgrade**: Hefei has built an 800 t/year production line cutting cost by 60%; Guofeng New Materials achieved a breakthrough in chemically imidized high-end copper-clad base film in 2025. In advanced packaging and high-density interconnect, glass substrates, polyimide and benzocyclobutene films represent a potential RMB 100B+ incremental market over the next 3-5 years.
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## Consolidated Action List
| Priority | Segment | Action | Window |
|———-|———|——–|——–|
| 🔴 Highest | Photoresist (immersion ArF / thick-film KrF) | Lock Q4 long-term agreement quotas; avoid spot channel | Immediate |
| 🔴 Highest | AlN powder, high-end silicon nitride | Lock prices; switch to qualified domestic suppliers | Immediate |
| 🟠 High | Carbon fiber T800+ | Lock 3-6 months of volume | Within October |
| 🟠 High | Electronic-grade PTFE (high-frequency CCL) | Capture the qualification window | Q4 |
| 🟡 Medium | PEEK domestic resin | Buy as needed; bind with robot OEMs | Ongoing |
| 🟡 Medium | Automotive-grade aerogel pads | Enter EV battery makers’ approved lists | Q4 |
| 🟢 Low | Commodity PTFE, ordinary aerogel blanket | Buyer’s market; restock in phases on dips | Ongoing |
| 🟢 Low | Low-end AlN substrate (LED) | Avoid price war; no capacity expansion | — |
—
*Data sources: Fluorine Online, Longzhong Information, MySteel, East Money, 10jqka, Tencent Securities, Kaiyuan Securities Research, CEMIA, SEMI, TECHCET, IndexBox, Dataintelo, IIM Information, 11467/Bafang Resources spot quotes, SpecialChem.*
*Report generated: 2026-10-07 01:30 (Asia/Shanghai)*
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