Price Trend Daily 2026-08-16: Fluorochemical Cost Ignition, PI Film Enters Seller Market

Price Overview

Key Movements

1. PTFE: Spot Prices Hold, but the Cost Side Has Already Ignited

The Shandong suspension medium-granule benchmark quote stood at RMB 31,800/t (Aug 13), flat week-on-week. But this stability is an illusion — the transaction average during Aug 6–10 reached RMB 38,650/t, with a monthly peak quote of RMB 45,500/t, implying a 43% intra-month high-low spread. The real signal is upstream: high-purity anhydrous hydrofluoric acid has climbed to RMB 16,000–16,500/t, up nearly 40% from under RMB 12,000/t at the start of the year; semiconductor-grade HF is up 20%–30%. Three drivers are stacking up — a sulfuric acid price surge (early-April average of RMB 1,633/t, +49.8% vs. early March and +160.5% YoY; mainstream 93%/98% acid quoted at RMB 1,700/t in Shandong in August), persistently tight fluorspar supply, and Korean semiconductor makers increasing anhydrous HF procurement from China. Haohua Technology confirmed in early August that its PTFE production-to-sales ratio remains high and that selling prices have been raised on rising costs. Conclusion: PTFE is highly likely to follow with a 5%–10% increase by the end of Q3.

2. PI Film: The Highest-Conviction Price Increase of This Cycle

Global supply and demand for electronic-grade PI film is severely imbalanced. Explosive AI server and HBM demand, combined with the absence of capacity expansion plans among overseas majors, has led the industry to expect the upcycle to extend through 2028. Thermal-control PI film (the feedstock for high thermal conductivity graphite film) has become the mainstream solution for AI server heat dissipation, with domestic producers such as Ruihuatai running at full capacity. Low-CTE PI for low-dielectric FCCL is equally tight, and Fanya Microtransmission plans to take control of Tianjin Tianyuan to enter the high-end domestic substitution market. This is not short-term volatility — it is a structural gap.

3. Carbon Fiber: The Price Bottom Has Confirmed a Reversal

Effective January 2026, Toray raised prices on TORAYCA carbon fiber and intermediate products including prepreg and fabrics by 10%–20%. Jilin Chemical Fibre simultaneously raised wet-spun 12TK by RMB 5,000/t and 3K by RMB 10,000/t. China’s actual consumption reached 96,446 tonnes in 2025, up 71.89% YoY, with growth concentrated in wind turbine blades and aerospace. The critical distinction: upstream acrylonitrile sits at just RMB 6,900/t (Aug 4), a low level with no cost pressure whatsoever — this round of increases is driven by demand expansion and the restoration of pricing power, making it materially more sustainable than the cost-push hikes of 2023–2024.

4. PEEK and Ceramic Raw Materials: No Basis for Price Increases

Domestic PEEK is priced at RMB 300,000–400,000/t, only one-third to one-half of imported material. Zhongyan Co. is investing RMB 1.2 billion in an integrated 10,000-tonne project (bringing total capacity to 11,000 tonnes at full ramp), and DFBP (fluoroketone) localization is driving costs down. Supply is being released faster than demand materializes, leaving prices stable to slightly weak. Metallurgical-grade alumina spot averaged RMB 2,706/t (July 31), already below the industry average full-cost line; oversupply and high warrant inventories remain unresolved, with prices expected to trade in a low range of RMB 2,600–2,800/t. The ceramic raw material cost base is broadly loose.

Macro Reference

Brent crude traded at USD 80–82/bbl in early August. Citing continued shipping restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz, the EIA raised its 2026 Brent average forecast from USD 82 to USD 87/bbl, with Q3 averaging around USD 85/bbl. This creates moderate cost pressure on petrochemical base materials, but is not the dominant variable at present.

Impact Analysis

Impact on Procurement Costs

Fluoropolymers represent the largest risk exposure. If HF holds above RMB 16,000/t, a broad-based increase across PTFE, PVDF and other fluoropolymers by end-Q3 is highly probable. Electronic-grade PI film has already entered a seller’s market, with negotiating room approaching zero and lead times lengthening. Conversely, PEEK and ceramic raw materials offer buyers a rare negotiating window — one of the few genuine cost-reduction opportunities of the year.

Impact on Supply Chain

For PI film and semiconductor-grade HF, the bottleneck is not price but allocation and capacity lock-in. Procurement logic must shift from “price comparison” to “capacity reservation.” Carbon fiber is rising in price, but domestic capacity is ample (China accounted for nearly half of global operating capacity in 2025), so supply security is high and panic stockpiling is unnecessary.

Action Recommendations

Lock In Prices

• Electronic-grade PI film: Sign a 12-month long-term agreement with volume commitments immediately. The upcycle runs to 2028 — the later you act, the more you pay, and high-end grades may become unavailable at any price.
• PTFE: With the benchmark still at RMB 31,800/t, lock in full Q4 volume. Upward cost movement is confirmed; waiting for a formal price announcement will be too late.
• Semiconductor-grade HF: Prioritize supply rights over price. Sign framework agreements with guaranteed-supply clauses.

Hold and Observe

• PEEK: The expansion wave has not yet landed, so Q4 negotiating room will be greater. Switch to monthly rolling procurement and avoid long-term agreements — preserve the downside for yourself.
• Specialty ceramic raw materials (alumina series): Spot is oversupplied and futures have broken below the cost line. Maintain low inventory and buy as needed, awaiting a confirmed spot bottom.

Neutral

• Carbon fiber: Purchase large tow as needed; lock in T700 and above small tow in advance. Advance domestic substitution validation for high-end grades in parallel to avoid dependence on a single import source during an upcycle.

Sources: Chemicalbook (PTFE price index, updated 2026-08-14), SunSirs / Baiinfo, SCI99, investor communications from Do-Fluoride and Haohua Technology, price adjustment notices from Jilin Chemical Fibre and Toray, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (August 2026). Price ranges reflect publicly quoted market levels; actual transactions are subject to negotiation. Carbon fiber figures are reference estimates.